By Edward Wu and Ariel Edwards-Levy, CNN

(CNN) — Donald Trump continues to see some of the most positive ratings of his political career, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, which finds the president-elect poised to enter his second term with far more positive sentiment behind him than when he last occupied the White House. The public also broadly sees it as likely that he’ll carry out some of the economic and immigration policy promises central to his campaign and believes that he will follow through on threats to use his executive power to go after rivals and pardon people convicted related to the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol.

As the transition of power in Washington nears its end, Trump continues to see majority approval (55%) for his handling of it, with most Americans (56%) expecting him to do a good job in his second term, the survey finds. Ahead of Trump’s first term in office, the public was less positive. Only 40% of Americans approved of his handling of the presidential transition at this point in 2017, while 48% expected him to do a good job as president. But Trump’s more positive ratings now still lag behind other recent presidents when they entered office.

Opinions of Trump personally are now closely split between favorable (46%) and unfavorable (48%) — his best numbers since just after the 2016 presidential election, when 47% viewed him favorably and 50% unfavorably. History suggests, however, that this honeymoon period will wear off, with prior presidents experiencing a drop in positive sentiment throughout their terms.

Trump will take office with Republicans in control of both the US House and Senate for the first time since 2019. The public seems less optimistic about the effect of full GOP control than they are about Trump as president: 53% say that Republican control of the Senate, House and the presidency will be bad for the country.

Trump’s increased popularity comes as narrow majorities expect improvement in the state of the country and its economy after the new administration takes office. Overall, 56% say they believe that economic conditions in this country will be very or somewhat good a year from now and 52% say that the country more generally will be better off four years from now. Those views diverge by party. Democrats are less likely than Republicans to expect economic conditions a year from now to be very or somewhat good (31% among Democrats compared to 85% of Republicans). Most independents (54%) believe that economic conditions will be good a year from now.

These expectations for improved economic conditions come as an overwhelming majority of Americans (80%) believe that it’s at least somewhat likely that Trump will implement tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada and China. And half (including nearly 9 in 10 of those who rate him favorably) think he’ll reduce the cost of everyday goods. Many economists argue that Trump’s plans for tariffs would result in increased costs for the typical US household.

Most Americans also think it’s at least somewhat likely that Trump will follow through on his immigration plans to detain and deport millions of undocumented immigrants (74%) and close the US border with Mexico (58%). Americans are more split on whether he will be able to reduce the size and cost of running the federal government (54% think it’s very or somewhat likely compared to 46% who think it’s not too likely or not likely at all), end the war between Russia and Ukraine (49% likely to 51% unlikely), or avoid conflicts of interest between his family’s company and his work as president (47% likely to 53% unlikely). About 4 in 10 think it’s likely that he carries out plans to close the Department of Education, and a similar percent say he’s likely to end birthright citizenship. Only about a quarter think he’s likely to reduce political divisions in the country.

Trump’s campaign promises also included a range of extraordinary uses of presidential power, including some that are broadly unpopular, and majorities expect him to at least try to act on those tested in the poll. Roughly 8 in 10 Americans believe Trump will try to pardon most people convicted for their involvement in the January 6 attack on the US Capitol and to fire federal workers who oppose implementing his policies, with two-thirds or more expecting he’ll attempt to pardon himself for any possible federal crimes and direct the Department of Justice to investigate his political rivals.

His own supporters are more divided, though. Fewer than 50% of Americans who voted for Trump in the 2024 election believe that he will try to direct the Justice Department to investigate his political rivals or pardon himself for any possible federal crimes, while a larger portion of his voters think that he will try to fire federal workers who oppose his policies (71%) or pardon those convicted for their involvement in the January 6 attack (77%). For comparison, more than 9 in 10 voters who supported Kamala Harris believe Trump will try to do each of these actions.

A smaller majority of all Americans, about 6 in 10, take Trump’s comments about expanding US territory into places like Greenland or the Panama Canal seriously. These differ again by 2024 vote, with 68% of Harris supporters and 55% of Trump supporters saying Trump will attempt such an expansion. Americans are also split by age and gender, with younger people and men less likely to believe Trump will attempt to expand US territory: 53% of adults ages 18 to 44 believe Trump will try to do this (compared to 64% of those 45 and older) and 56% of men believe he will try (compared to 62% of women).

The poll also finds that Vice President-elect JD Vance continues to have a lower net favorability rating than his running mate, with 30% of Americans viewing him favorably and 38% unfavorably, and another 32% unsure how they feel about the incoming vice president. Roughly a third of Americans view incoming first lady Melania Trump favorably (33%), compared to 30% unfavorably. Views on Melania Trump were also about evenly split ahead of her husband’s first term as president. In January 2017, 36% viewed her favorably and 35% unfavorably.

Historically, the honeymoon doesn’t last

While expectations for Trump’s second term are rosier than they were for his first term, history suggests that presidential honeymoons often wear off after some time in office.

Expectations for Joe Biden and Barack Obama were even higher ahead of their first terms (61% thought Biden would be a good president and 79% said so about Obama). By the start of his second year, Biden’s approval rating stood at 41%, and he leaves office with a 36% approval rating. Obama fared better, landing a 51% approval rating at the start of his second year and leaving office with 60% approval.

Trump himself experienced a relative honeymoon period prior to his first term: 53% of Americans said they thought he would be a good president in November 2016 and 48% said the same in January 2017. His approval rating was 40% at the start of his second year and he left office in 2021 with a 34% approval rating, according to a CNN poll fielded shortly after the January 6 attack.

And there is a sizable chunk of the public that expresses growing doubt about Trump’s abilities as president, according to the poll, with those doubts coming largely among those who did not vote for him in last year’s election. Americans are more likely to say that Trump’s statements and actions since Election Day have made them less confident in his ability to serve as president than that he’s boosted their confidence. Nearly 4 in 10 (38%) say his statements and actions have decreased their confidence in him, while 25% say they’ve increased confidence and 37% say their views have not been affected.

At present, most Americans who say they expect Trump to be a good president also say they’re expecting him to bring down prices and usher in better economic conditions – even as half or more in this group also say that they expect him to take less popular actions, including wielding the power of the presidency against his political enemies and pardoning those convicted of crimes for their involvement in January 6. This, along with the prominence of economic issues as a top concern, suggests that perceptions of the economy could play an outsized role in the public’s view of Trump’s second term. Over 40% of respondents named an economic issue as the top issue facing the country today, more than double the second most common response (immigration and border security).

The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS from January 9-12 among a random national sample of 1,205 adults drawn from a probability-based panel. Surveys were either conducted online or by telephone with a live interviewer. Results among the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

CNN’s Jennifer Agiesta contributed to this report.

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