NORMAN, OKLA - Portions of River Country remain in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms today.

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., says air will rapidly decrease in temperature as it rises to the mid-level of the troposphere later today and into tonight. This could be combined with a weakening of the warm air aloft that normally resists the rising of surface air. Parcels of air rising more freely promotes storm formation.

The weather service says these conditions may occur in northern Kansas, northwest Missouri, southwest Iowa and southeast Nebraska for supercell development by late afternoon.

Large hail is expected to be the most probable hazard tonight.

The Storm Prediction Center article says the forecasted weather would develop as the “regional upper ridge tends to flatten,” which means the concave shape of a ridge of air in the upper atmosphere would flatten out and lose some of its ability to prevent air from rising. This upper ridge acts as a cap to resist formation of super cells. If it flattens out, the chance of thunderstorms is greater.

Gregg Goebel of Otoe County Emergency Management said launching of weather balloons is a way scientist can take measurements to determine if the upper ridge is flattening out as predicted and thus better forecast severe weather.

 U.S. Rep. Mike Flood issued a statement Wednesday following news that the National Weather Service (NWS) was facing staffing challenges in Nebraska and was not launching weather balloons at its Omaha and Rapid City, S.D., offices.

 

Those balloons, sent up twice a day at many NWS offices, collect an atmospheric snapshot by measuring information like temperature, humidity, dew point, wind speed and direction and more.

Local experts say this decision could hurt forecasting in the area.

Flood said he is investigating the shortage and hopes the agency will serve Nebraska well for many years to come.

 

Here is a portion of  the Storm Prediction Center's article

 

...Central Plains to Lower Missouri/Middle Mississippi Valleys...
Scattered thunderstorms, including a few lingering strong storms,
continue early this morning mainly across northwest Missouri and far
southern Iowa. These storms will continue to transition
east-southeastward, with severe-storm potential remaining limited as
the low-level jet/warm advection abate this morning.

As the regional upper ridge tends to flatten later today into
tonight, steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread this region.
Convective inhibition may become sufficiently weak by late
afternoon/early for isolated thunderstorm development near the warm
front/wind shift including a corridor across northern Kansas,
southeast Nebraska to southwest Iowa/northwest Missouri.

Supercellular development could occur in the presence of moderate
instability and favorable wind profiles featuring around 35-40 kt
effective shear magnitudes. A greater coverage of elevated storms
will occur tonight as the low-level jet reestablishes and storms
expand eastward regionally. Large hail is the most probable hazard
in both regimes.